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Despite this relief, investors have become increasingly concerned about the government’s economic management strategy, which has failed as the coronavirus epidemic has progressed. Officials predict that the economy will contract by more than 12% this year, but that it will recover by 5.5 percent the following year. “There is still a lot of hard work to be done in terms of introducing an economic system that inspires trust not only in bondholders but also in the local population,” said Graham Stock, a senior strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, which, along with BlackRock, was part of the largest creditor party. Economists are concerned about the widening difference between the country’s official and parallel exchange rates, which emerged after capital controls were imposed last year. Argentina tightened capital controls earlier this month to defend its declining stock of net foreign exchange reserves, which has dropped to about $5 billion, according to estimates from Buenos Aires-based Portfolio Personal Inversiones. Federico Kaune, head of emerging markets fixed income at UBS Asset Management, called the decision “draconian.” Some are now predicting another peso depreciation in the medium term. Within the world of ETFs

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“For the time being, I’d keep Argentina,” says Rebecca Braeu, Nationwide Investments’ head of international analysis and strategies. During this year’s two-day Greenwich Economic Forum in Connecticut, the two spoke on separate panel discussions.
Fernandez’s victory last month was not accompanied by any indications of how he plans to pay the IMF, much less local lenders, this year. Investors seem to be able to bet that Fernandez would not be like Cristina, whom he once served as chief of staff. The situation is fluid and could remain so for some time.
“In order to prevent major political and economic upheaval, we believe the incoming Fernandez Administration would avoid a market-unfriendly default,” says Jan Dehn, head of research at the Ashmore Group in London. Bond prices could double from their current levels in the 40s if the IMF debt’s maturity is extended.
Cristina Kirchner has reclaimed her role as vice president. She is in charge of foreign affairs rather than the economy… [+]. Her foreign policy, on the other hand, is already hostile to her main trading partner, Brazil. (Daniel Jayo/AP Photo)

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